Connecting Kaesong to the internet: some implications

As reported by Yonhap, South and North Korea agreed last week on how to connect their jointly operated factory park in Kaesong to the Internet, a move that could remove a key obstacle standing in the way of potential foreign investment.  Readers of this blog will know that I've been intensely interested in the dilemma posed for North Korea by the Internet, the so-called "dictator's dilemma" or "digital dilemma." (check out these earlier posts) (or these on the "digital dilemma)
The Yonhap report goes on to say that "KT, South Korea's top fixed-line operator and No. 2 mobile carrier, and North Korea's Post and Telecommunications Corp. plan to discuss details on setting up Internet services, said the ministry. The move came six months after the rival Koreas agreed to allow South Korean factory managers to use the Internet and mobile phones in the sprawling enclave. The factory park is home to 120 small South Korean plants producing clothes, shoes, watches and other labor-intensive goods. More than 44,600 North Koreans work in the complex, providing a major revenue source for their cash-strapped country. South Korea hopes to bring foreign investors to the factory park, believing their presence could help deter North Korea from unilaterally shuttering the park." What the Yonhap piece does not mention is that the Kaesong industrial complex location was originally proposed and chose because of its proximity to the Incheon International Airport, which was envisioned as not only an airport, but a seaport and teleport as well. Interesting developments indeed.

Kim Jong Il's death and North Korea's digital dilemma

The media are beginning to pay attention to a topic that has been a recurrent theme of this blog over the years, the implication for the future and for Korean reunification of the yawning and increasing digital divide on the Korean peninsula.  These days, a digital divide correlates also with an economic divide, at least if a nation like North Korea ever hopes to have a modern economy.  Interestingly, it also correlates with military capability in the sense that ICT is now integrated with most all modern weapons systems and has become a defining factor in modern warfare.  An article in Forbes explores how the "Death of Kim Jong Il Highlights North Korean Tech Famine."  Also worth reading is the Forbes piece on "Creating Bridges into North Korea."
John Walcott, writing for Bloomberg, explores why North Korea is a "hard target" which poses a great challenge for U.S. and other outside intelligence services.  His article notes that A simple fact is at the heart of the intelligence challenge posed by North Korea, David S. Maxwell, the associate director of the Security Studies program at Georgetown University in Washington, said in an interview. “What makes it hard for us to penetrate is the same control of information that keeps the regime in power,” he said. North Korea relies on an 11-year-old network of underground fiber-optic cables that’s harder for outsiders to tap -- and easier for the authorities to monitor -- than are cell phones, satellite communications or the Internet. In a telling point, the Bloomberg article notes that technology may finally turn the tide, as it’s doing elsewhere, by forcing even North Korea to change, even if not to abandon its reclusive and repressive ways. Barbro Elm, the Swedish ambassador to North Korea, recently reported that she had taken a trip from Pyongyang to three other cities and had strong domestic cell phone service the entire way. She had international service only when she was near the Chinese border and could connect to Chinese towers. I believe that technology has already begun to have its impact on North Korea,which faces a stark dilemma. It can either adopt and use the new mobile broadband and digital technologies, thereby developing its economy and nation, or it can seek to control and limit their use, a choice that will also necessarily limit the nation's economic and social development.

The deepening dictator's dilemma: North Korea bans WiFi and Satellite Internet

The recent news that North Korea has banned use of WiFi networks and Satellite Internet for foreigners brings that nations dilemma once again into clear focus.  It needs to develop digital networks and use the internet if it is to have any hope of economic development.  However, by doing so in this age of ever smaller, more powerful and cheaper internet-capable digital devices, it loses the tight control over information that the leadership covets.
As reported by the North Korea Tech website on September 9,"North Korea has banned the use of satellite Internet connections and WiFi networks by foreign embassies and international organizations unless they get government approval."
The reason for this ban?  Last month The Diplomat reported that housing prices had skyrocketed in a residential area of Pyongyang where the foreign embassies are located as North Koreans were scrambling to move to that area, expecting to use the embassies’ Wi-Fi. The article further noted the following. "For example, after a Middle Eastern embassy installed a strong router, college students in Pyongyang began walking around the embassy in order to use the Internet with their mobile phones. It’s known that North Korea removes all the programs related to usage of the Internet, such as Internet explorer, when selling mobile phones to its people."
Although anecdotal, this adds to a growing body of evidence that Johann Galtung's conception of how Korea might be reunified has merit. Galtung argues that unification only necessitates the free flow of people, goods and services, and information and ideas between the two Korean states, not the dissolution of ROK and DPRK into a single Korean state. This was discussed in an earlier post after his 2008 lecture at a university in Busan.

Google chairman's recent North Korea visit and the "dark side of the digital revolution"

The Wall Street Journal has published an interesting article by Google's Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, entitled "The Dark Side of the Digital Revolution."   It is based largely on their recent visit to North Korea, and provides an interesting current perspective on the dilemma that the internet and all new digital technologies and networks pose for the North Korean government.  For example, they note that "Even the idea of the Internet has not yet permeated the public's consciousness in North Korea. When foreigners visit, the government stages Internet browsing sessions by having "students" look at pre-downloaded and preapproved content, spending hours (as they did when we were there) scrolling up and down their screens in totalitarian unison." What makes this situation so poignant is that, just south of the DMZ is a society which is arguably more aware of the internet than any other country on earth.  I recommend reading the entire article.

Changing smartphone preferences in North Korea

Radio Free Asia just published a report that provides a fascinating glimpse into growth of mobile communications usage in North Korea, specifically focusing on smartphones.  Although anecdotal, I believe the information contributes to my argument, in earlier posts (e.g. here), about the "digital dilemma" facing North Korea's government.  The report, entitled "North Korean traders scramble for smartphones from the south," included some interesting details, including the following excerpt.
"The traders seek South Korean smartphones such as Samsungs and LGs, which cost double the price of similar Chinese-made models, so that they can type and text in Korean and because they believe the devices provide better quality reception, the sources in North Korea said. Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea, which operates a restricted domestic cell phone network that does not allow international calls, have long underpinned a thriving illicit border trade between the two countries. The foreign phones are banned by Pyongyang, but North Koreans use them covertly to connect to Chinese reception towers near the border and organize deliveries and payment for goods. Now, preferences for phones made by globally popular South Korean electronics giants such as Samsung and LG indicate the traders’ taste in cell phones is becoming more sophisticated."
Even at double the cost, the South Korean-made smartphones are attractive.  The article went on to note that "Chinese dealers often provide cell phones for the North Korean traders they work with to facilitate their operations. One Chinese dealer surnamed Liu said the five North Korean traders working under him were pestering him to replace their Chinese-brand phones with Samsungs or LGs."
Furthermore,"Since August, North Korea has had its own smartphone, the AS1201 Arirang, which works in the Korean language, according to announcements in state media. But the state-produced device is made for use on the domestic network Koryolink, which does not allow international calls or access to mobile Internet."

Communication and Korean Reunification

Andrei Lankov's September Op-Ed piece in The New York Times, entitled "Changing North Korea," deals with a topic I addressed in Chapter 9 of my 1995 book, The Telecommunications Revolution in Korea.  That chapter is organized around the two fundamental realities of the information revolution in South Korea as they relate to the overarching problem of national division.  The first is the control of the media and the flow of information into and out of North Korea for political purposes.   The second is the growing disparity in information infrastructure between North and South.  These two factors taken together present North Korea with an enormous dilemma.  Developing modern digital networks inevitably weakens control over the information that reaches the people, while the effort to maintain strict control over information flows will inevitably inhibit the development of a modern communications infrastructure.

Under present circumstances, Lankov is undoubtedly correct in suggesting that change will have to come from the North Korean people themselves.  He notes that "Aware of their vulnerabilities, North Korean leaders have taken information control to extremes unprecedented even among Communist dictatorships."   Lankov's key suggestion is that "To crack Pyongyang's control over information and bring about pressure for change from within, truth and information should be introduced into North Korean society."   Obviously, I agree.  This is essentially what Professor Johann Galtung suggested in a 2008 lecture in Pusan (see my earlier post).

As Lankov warns in his Op-Ed piece, the United States, South Korea and others should be aware that there are no "quick fixes."  Engaging in dialogue with North Korea, encouraging exchanges, and disseminating information will only have an effect over time.   The recent growth of a digital mobile telephone network in North Korea is an encouraging sign, especially if one assumes that the development and use of modern digital networks enhances the prospects for information flow in and out of North Korea.  The evidence, if one looks at how North Koreans used Chinese mobile networks, seems to suggest that is the case. (See my September 2 post)

More on North Korea's Digital Dilemma

The Economist has published an excellent piece on "succession in North Korea" that helps to underscore some of the points made in my earlier post.  It notes that there are now hundreds of thousands of mobile-phone users on the regime’s network, with international calls for some. Near the border with China, North Koreans can use Chinese mobile networks to call South Korea, either directly or by paying brokers to put them through. DVDs on sale on the black market show what life in the outside world, especially South Korea, is like.
The Economist notes that "Growing understanding of North Korea’s economic backwardness seems likely to breed hunger for change. It is hard to see how the economy could be modernised without abruptly destroying the state’s paternalistic ruling mythology. Much of the dark interior of North Korea is bereft not only of consumer goods but also of trustworthy information, on anything from prices to politics. Although an increasing number of people, especially in the border areas, are aware of the vast disparity between capitalist South Korea and their own workers’ paradise, defectors say many still do not fully grasp how wide that chasm is. As one defector puts it, explaining why his relatives cling to their belief in the Kim family state when he sends them cash from South Korea: “There is a gap between what you know and what you believe.”
Continuing from the article, "Perhaps the most confounding aspect of North Korea is that, however much it has depended on Chinese investment and Western aid since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the outside world cannot do much to influence its internal dynamics. So deprived are its people of both external and internal sources of information that the regime has been able to assert control. So dependent are they on its favour that North Koreans have become accustomed to policing themselves.  Yet the country that Mr Kim inherits is not as unchanging as it appears. Mobile phones, cross-border profiteering, corruption and inequality have all flourished. The failed currency reforms led to unprecedented public anger."

North Korea on the Cusp of Digital Transformation?

Alexandre Mansourov of the Nautilus Institute has published a report on an important topic and with a very appropriate title, "North Korea on the Cusp of Digital Transformation?"  As readers of this blog will know, I've been very interested in the role of telecommunications in national reunification for some time now.   I published a post in June of this year with hyperlinks to some of my other posts.  The Mansourov report shows careful analysis of important Korean-language documentation on North Korea's ICT policies and development and is a valuable addition to this important topic.
As I have argued on numerous occasions, North Korea faces a clear cut dilemma.  Either modernize its digital networks, both fixed and wireless, in order to develop economically, or seek to control the internet, with the inevitable side effect that economic growth will be limited.  Furthermore, the mobile broadband revolution currently underway worldwide simply makes it increasingly difficult for the North to control information reaching its citizens.

The "notetel" and digital disruption in North Korea

As frequently noted in earlier posts on this blog, the steadily decreasing cost and size of digital devices, along with their vastly increased power to compute, store and transmit information poses a dilemma for the government in North Korea.  To date, the bulk of the evidence for this proposition is anecdotal.  Nevertheless, it is increasingly persuasive. (Click on the accompanying graphic to see a larger version.)
As noted in a new report by Reuters, the popularity of a $50 device called the "notetel" in North Korea symbolizes a shift in that country.  As noted in the report,"Notel or 'notetel' - the name is a uniquely North Korean word combining 'notebook' and 'television' - are easily found on the black market for around 300 Chinese yuan ($48), and are also available in some state shops and markets.The device was legalized last year, according to defector-run news outlets in Seoul - one of many recent measures taken by the state to accommodate grassroots change. The new rules, however, also require North Koreans to register their notel, enabling authorities to monitor who is most likely to be watching banned foreign media." Later on the report notes that "The low-voltage notel differs from the portable DVD players of the late 1990s in that they have USB and SD card ports, and a built-in TV and radio tuner. They can also be charged with a car battery - an essential piece of household equipment in electricity-scarce North Korea." A North Korean defector, quoted in the Reuters report, said the device's multi-function nature makes it easier for users to get away with watching illegal material. "To avoid getting caught, people load a North Korean DVD while watching South Korean dramas on a USB stick, which can be pulled out," he said. "They then tell the authorities, who feel the heat from the notel to check whether or not it has been recently used, that they were watching North Korean films". " Fascinating information, even if anecdotal.  I wonder about the significance of "Sansung" on the display screen of the above graphic, but I doubt it is any coincidence.   The North Korean public is by now well acquainted with Samsung Electronics!

The Impact of Information in North Korea: More Middle Class Defectors?

An article in the Chosun Ilbo today reports on speculation that more middle class people are beginning to defect from North Korea, following the utter failure of that nation's currency reform last year.  While the article does not present numbers or hard evidence, it would be surprising if this new trend is not the case.   In addition to the currency reform, the article notes that  the spread of South Korean pop culture through videos and CDs clandestinely circulated in the North has also encouraged some middle and higher-class North Koreans to flee.
The article simply underscores the critical role of communication and information in solving the overarching political problem in Korea:  national division.   This has been the subject of numerous earlier posts.  The following are some main considerations.

• The continued growth of  telecommunications infrastructure disparity between South and North Korea--the world's largest and most poignant "digital divide."
•  The current rapid expansion of mobile broadband (a.k.a. "smart phones" --Apple, Android and others) and other digital technology is making it more difficult for the North Korean government to keep information out.  It comes in via mobile phone, MP3 players, DVD and so forth.
• North Korea ultimately faces the same dilemma as China, with its "Great Firewall," ---either accept the internet and see your economy participate in global growth, or reject it and stagnate economically.
• Article 19 of the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights, in 1948 stated that "Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers."    This was re-affirmed in the present century by the World Summit on the Information Society.   North Korean citizens are being denied this right.

Mobile Phone Use in North Korea Increasing and Diversifying

Media reports, including one in The Joongang Daily, indicate that mobile phone usage in North Korea is up 50 percent, year on year.   The development and use of mobile telephony is a topic that I've followed somewhat closely in this blog (see earlier posts).  There are many interesting aspects to the development.  Use of Chinese mobile services along North Korea's border with China highlights the dilemma that the North faces in trying to keep information from its people.  Continued restrictions on the use of mobile phones and other digital devices has the effect of restricting economic growth and development, while expansion of services multiplies the ways North Korean citizens can receive and share information about the outside world.  Gigaom has an interesting article, based on some recent research, about how Twitter could help unleash world peace.
According to figures released by South Korean officials, the number of mobile phone users in North Korea has increased to 450,000 and South Korea's Vice Unification Minister believes, probably correctly, that this indicates not only growth in numbers but also a diversification of users, after the early usage was largely limited to elites.  This diversification, in turn, could signal the growth of a tech-savvy generation in North Korea.  If that happens, one can only speculate about the future role of digital media in political change within North Korea.  The matter becomes especially interesting with the current rapid decrease in cost, accompanied by increase in computing and communication power of a growing array of smart phones!

North Korea's Software Industry

Although the digital divide between North and South Korea may be the largest in the world by many measures.  However, as with most generalizations, there are exceptions to the rule.  In the case of North Korea, one of these may be found, somewhat surprisingly, in the are of software and programming.  Bloomberg reports that programmers for North Korea's General Federation of Science and Technology developed a 2007 mobile phone bowling game based on the 1998 film "The Big Lebowski," starring Jeff Bridges, as well as "Men in Black: Alien Assault."
North Korea's growing software industry is championed by Kim Jong Il and contracting with North Korean companies is legal under United Nations sanctions unless they are linked to the arms trade.  Volker Eloesser, a founder of Pyongyang-based Nosotek, notes that the technological education of graduates from North Korean universities has become significantly better.  North Korea’s information technology push began in the 1980s as the government sought to bolster the faltering economy.
Today Nosotek advertises itself as "the first western IT venture in DPRK (North Korea).  Its web site expands upon this as follows:

• In DPRK, software engineers are selected from the mathematics elite and learn programming from the ground-up, such as assembler to C#, but also Linux kernel and Visual Basic macros. 
• Among them, Nosotek has attracted the cream of local talent as the only company in Pyongyang offering western working conditions and Internet access. 
• In addition to the accessible skill level Nosotek was set-up in DPRK because IP secrecy and minimum employee churn rate are structurally guaranteed.< Nosotek sells direct access to its 50+ programmers jointly managed by western and local managers. 
• Services can be invoiced through a Hong Kong or Chinese company. 
• Benefit from North Korea's opening, outsource to Nosotek.

From the government's point of view, the activities of such companies as Nosotek is no doubt appreciated since they generate foreign exchange.  However, as noted by Andrei Lankov, a North Korean expert based in Seoul, "These activities help to fund the regime, but at the same time they bring knowledge of the outside world to people who could affect change."  The dilemma facing North Korea, a subject of earlier posts (and also this one), seems to be growing and not diminishing.

The flow of luxuries and information into North Korea

The Wall Street Journal carried an interesting article today entitled "Luxuries Flow into North Korea." It provides additional evidence for a thesis I've presented many times in this blog.  North Korea faces a dilemma when it comes to the new digital, internet-connected communication technologies.  Adopting and using them makes it more difficult to control the flow of information into the country, but not using them is well nigh impossible.  As the article notes, an examination of U.N. and Chinese trade data reveals that exports to North Korea of products including cars, tobacco, laptops, cellphones and domestic electrical appliances all increased significantly over the last five years. Most items crossed the border from China. (Click on the accompanying graphic to see a full size version.) Since 2007, North Korea's imports of cars, laptops and air conditioners have each more than quadrupled, while imports of cellphones have risen by more than 4,200%, with the vast majority of items coming from China, according to the U.N. data. Chinese customs data show those trends continuing in 2011. The article contains some vital insight into UN Sanctions, designed to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. "The sanctions don't work because as long as China allows the export of luxury goods, the North Korea elite will be paid with them to support the regime," said Jiyoung Song, an associate fellow at London-based think tank Chatham House, who has studied North Korea since 1999. At the same time, she added, "Things like DVDs and mobile devices will help to change North Korean society in a gradual manner by teaching them about the outside world, and showing them these things don't just come through the benevolence of their leaders." She said she had interviewed a North Korean defector last year—the daughter of a trade official—who claimed she had been given an iPad and two laptops by the "Dear Leader," as Kim Jong Il was known.